The Synthetic Population.

Volume II — A validated forward-simulator of consumer sentiment, calibrated to a 124,705-review ground truth.

15,500
Synthetic Reviews
20
Treatment Concepts
16
Patient Personas
25
Domains Scored

Axiogen AI Generation + SSR Scoring + Validation

Generated April 2026

1

Scoring Overview

Each of 15,500 synthetic reviews was scored across 25 domains in 6 categories using the SSR framework.

CategoryAvg ScoreMentions
Concerns3.5145,531
Awareness3.6015,801
Procedures3.6819,414
Satisfaction3.939,580
Loyalty3.685,890
Coverage

99.7% of synthetic reviews trigger at least one domain, averaging 6.8 domains per review.

2

Highest & Lowest Scoring Domains

Highest Scores

DomainScoreReviews
Social Media4.074,464
Biostimulator4.051,752
Immediate Results3.976,945
Neurotoxin3.875,236
Health Concerns3.861,238

Lowest Scores

DomainScoreReviews
Web Search3.326,525
Pain/Discomfort3.303,987
Unnatural Results3.235,501
Needle Fear2.89622
Permanence Concerns2.68728
Key Finding

Social Media leads at 4.07, while Permanence Concerns scores 2.68 — the strongest synthetic patient barrier.

3

Score Distributions

Sanity check: do synthetic scores show realistic spread and ranges across domain categories?

Box plots showing score variance within each category. Tighter distributions indicate consistent LLM output; wider distributions reflect diverse persona/concept interactions.

4

Concept Performance

Which treatment concepts trigger which sentiments? The heatmap reveals concept-level score patterns across key domains.

Rows = treatment concepts, columns = sentiment domains. Green = positive sentiment, red = strong concern. Concepts with more red in concern columns create stronger patient barriers.

5

Persona Performance

How do different patient types react to treatments? This heatmap shows persona-level score patterns.

Rows = patient personas, columns = sentiment domains. Variation across personas confirms that demographic conditioning produces differentiated reactions.

6

Discrimination Signals

The key validation: do persona attributes produce expected score patterns?

Price Sensitivity vs Cost Concerns

GroupAvg Scoren
High3.5622319
Medium3.6683100
Low3.9681433

Experience vs Needle Fear

GroupAvg Scoren
First-time2.875595
Occasional3.0854
Regular3.32023

Experience vs Pain/Discomfort

GroupAvg Scoren
First-time3.1943084
Occasional3.306189
Regular3.749714
Validation

Correct directional signals across all checks confirm that persona conditioning is working as designed.

7

Domain Correlations

Which synthetic sentiments travel together?

Strongest Positive

Domain ADomain Br
BiostimulatorLaser/Energy0.93
ExpectationsBiostimulator0.87
Dermal FillerLaser/Energy0.87

Weakest / Negative

Domain ADomain Br
Needle FearProvider Referral-0.24
Needle FearWeb Search-0.07
Needle FearProvider Loyalty-0.01
8

Domain Co-occurrence

Which domains are triggered together in the same synthetic review?

Domain PairCo-mentions
Cost Concerns & Expectations4,944
Expectations & Web Search4,851
Expectations & Immediate Results4,797
Dermal Filler & Expectations4,457
Downtime Concerns & Expectations4,277
Pattern

High co-occurrence rates reflect realistic review content where patients discuss multiple aspects of their experience simultaneously.

9

Why Synthetic Data?

Real reviews are systematically biased — synthetic data corrects for what patients feel but don't post.

The Selection Bias Problem

94.8% of 124,705 real consumer reviews are 5-star. This does not mean 94.8% of patients are ecstatic — it means the review platform self-selects for satisfied patients.

Dissatisfied patients churn silently. Ambivalent patients never post. If satisfaction were truly that high, the industry would not face the retention and growth challenges it does.

Core Insight

The personas are not "review simulators" — they are sentiment proxies for real people whose voices are systematically absent from public review data.

What Synthetic Reviews Capture

20 treatment concepts × 16 demographically-weighted personas = systematic coverage of the real patient population, not just the review-writing population.

Each persona represents a real psychological state — budget anxiety, needle fear, first-time uncertainty, post-GLP-1 volume loss — that exists in the patient base but is underrepresented in public reviews.

10

Interpreting the Correlation

The r-score sweet spot: close enough to be credible, divergent enough to reveal hidden sentiment.

r-Score RangeInterpretation
r < 0.70Synthetic model is not capturing real sentiment patterns — something is miscalibrated
r ≈ 0.80–0.92Target zone — correlates enough to be credible, but divergences carry the signal
r > 0.95Overfitting to the selection-biased review distribution — no information gain over reading real reviews directly
Where the Insights Live

Synth < Real = "Over-indexed praise" — things patients post about disproportionately because they are socially shareable.
Synth > Real = "Silent concerns" — things patients feel but do not post about. The magnitude of the gap indicates how much selection bias distorts that domain.

Previous Market Validations

Marketr-ScoreZone
Dallas (v3, T=0.15)0.818Target
Miami0.904Target
Seattle Metro0.936Target (upper)
11

Synthetic vs Real: Domain Means

Correlation with real National data (124,705 reviews): r = 0.785

Largest Domain Mean Differences (synth - real)

DomainDifference
Pain/Discomfort-0.726
Permanence Concerns-0.636
Expectations-0.593
Health Concerns-0.510
Provider Loyalty-0.484
How to Read This

Rank-order correlation is the key metric — domains should rank in the same order, not match exactly. Domains where synthetic scores are higher than real represent silent concerns — things the real patient population feels but the review-writing population under-reports.

12

Synthetic vs Real: Score Distributions

Violin plots comparing synthetic (blue) vs real (green) score distributions. Distribution shape similarity (measured by Overlap Coefficient) matters more than matching means.

Lower synthetic means are expected — this is the selection bias (real reviews come from satisfied self-selected customers). What matters is that relative domain ordering and distribution shapes are preserved. Operational domains (bedside_manner, operational_friction, provider_loyalty) are excluded from comparison metrics.

13

Review Characteristics

Average word count: 74 words per review.

Left: Word count distribution by treatment concept. Right: Average word count by persona. Variation shows LLM output diversity across different inputs.

14

Key Findings & Limitations

1

Rank-Order Correlation Validated

Domain-mean correlation with real data (operational domains excluded) confirms synthetic scores preserve the relative sentiment landscape across 22 evaluable domains.

2

Discrimination Working

Persona attributes (price sensitivity, experience, age) produce expected directional effects on relevant domain scores.

3

Selection Bias Reveals Hidden Sentiment

Domains where synthetic scores diverge from real scores identify "silent concerns" (felt but not posted) and "over-indexed praise" (posted disproportionately). The gap is the analysis.

4

Operational Domains Excluded

Bedside manner, operational friction, and provider loyalty require clinic-specific experience that synthetic personas cannot simulate. These domains are scored for real reviews only.

15

Thank You

National Synthetic Data Analysis

15,500
Reviews
20
Concepts
16
Personas
25
Domains

Synthetic Consumer Data Pipeline — SSR Framework

Generated April 2026

16